Postage Stamp Chat Board & Stamp Bulletin Board Forum
 

Do you think that Greece will exit the Euro currency?

Does seem inevitable, from what I am seeing. They never should have be allowed in for starters.

The Germans and French have only so much money to toss at bailing them out, and the Greeks do not seem to realise the seriousness of what mess they are in.

The Euro has sunk a lot lately and that is not popular in Germany with taxpayers as the Greek mess is seen to be the cause.

You could run this poll side by side with "When will Greece have a workable government?"

_________________
Greg - Looking for Goulburn Australia Cancels and Grangemouth Scotland Cancels and Covers
Member of the S.T.A.M.P Club for Slightly Twisted And Mad Philatelists - Motto: "Bring back the lick!"

When the run-up to the creation was going on, with government's pushing to meet the GDP-debt ratios and all that, the term PIGS was coined, for Portgual, Italy, Greece, Spain, the countries at the bottom of the list for the condition of their fiscal houses. They all squeaked through of course. Now the term is PIIGS, Ireland having joined 'the club' following the collapse of its growing service economy.

Greeks don't want to leave the Euro of course, as they know the drachma would perform rubbish on currency markets. It wouldn't pull a Zimbabwe, but not surprising would be a late-90s Mexican peso or Russian ruble fall.

Germans are certainly tired of bailing everyone out. First it was East Germany--fair enough, West Germany was 'helping their own' in that case. But to stump up to salvage things from messes made by frivilous 'family members'.

Cut off Greece, the prodigal son, and let them learn their lesson the hard way.

_________________
Collecting Mongolia; Thailand; Indo-China; Mourning Covers; OHMS.
My online 'store': http://stampsfromaethelwulf.blogspot.com/

Greece will be better off out of the capitalist EU.

Yes Greece will exit Euro, and most likely there maybe a couple of other countries that might follow as well.

I understand there is the start of a run on the banks in Greece.

The locals want Euros in their hands, to Drachmas.

I Don't see this scenario in short term but in a two years very likely, only real solution for Greece would be something in line with what Island pulled out. I think Island did one of the best things possible under given circumstances.

My country, together with the rest of ex-Yu countries, is struggling on our way to Euro integration and I can't possibly see how it will help us, we will become place to export low quality goods to be sold at exaggerated prices and dumping prices for goods locally produced, both equally killing our weak economies. At the same time they'll intensify brain drain (it already started long ago). We will be generously given great credits through MMF and it will keep us in debt forever.

It is naive to think that Germany and France are loosing something, actually I'm prone to think that they gained a lot with all this Euro illusion. Germany needed places to invest money under good conditions especially as their economy got under pressure after reunification. France on the other hand was and still is weaker and is also investing money, that money will never disappear, citizens of this two countries just can't understand that this money is coming back with interests all the time and helps keeping their economies from collapsing too.

Yes, Greece will exit sooner rather than later.

And they will be followed in fairly short order by the other "peasant economies" - Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, maybe even France.

And the Eastern European countries will see the criteria for joining toughened up to the extent that they will not be able to meet.

So, you're anti-capitalist, anti-Royalist, anti-just-about-everything-worth-having.

What do you support?

I thought they already had.

And not of their own choice.

_________________
A man might as well marry ... if he finds a good wife he will be happy ... if not, he will become a philosopher.
Collecting Greater New Guinea & Macropods (Kangaroos & Wallabies).

I don't support capitalism or royalty either ... and I don't count either as worth having ... guess that makes two of us.

_________________
A man might as well marry ... if he finds a good wife he will be happy ... if not, he will become a philosopher.
Collecting Greater New Guinea & Macropods (Kangaroos & Wallabies).

Well I see no good reason for this scenario, would prevent lot of "goods and investment flow" (and right now this flow is heavily in interest of powerful, "bank & marketing economies" - like Germany and England and few other! I think this countries you mentioned could do quite good left alone.

http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Citi-Greece-Exit-Eurozone/2012/05/07/id/438188 : There's a 75 percent chance Greece will abandon the euro although the chances of the entire currency zone breaking up are remote ...

_________________
CASACUDOR

Careful, Gavin's Union Jack pants will explode!

Two different possible scenarios here: that they'll abandon it (seems unlikely I'd say, the Euro has its faults, but when the alternative is the drachma...) or that they'll be kicked out of it.

_________________
Collecting Mongolia; Thailand; Indo-China; Mourning Covers; OHMS.
My online 'store': http://stampsfromaethelwulf.blogspot.com/

Well, at least I can find something to be patriotic about

Opinion polls say 70% of Greeks do not want to leave the Euro and 70% of Greeks at the last election voted not to undergo the pain to stay in the Euro. What they seem to want is someone to subsidise their lifestyle for ever.

The problem with the Euro is Germany. The Germans, and possibly one or two others, but NOT the French, need to exit the Euro into a Euromark zone, and leave the Euro as a soft currency which would quickly depreciate. giving the other countries some breathing room they desperately need.

Since WWII all european currencies steadily devalued against the Mark helping to maintain a balance by making BMWs more expensive to import and your cars cheaper in Germany.

Since the Euro that safety valve was locked shut and the boiler is now about to explode.

Isn't it strange that the countries that received the greatest proportionate transfer of EU funds to help them develop their economies - Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain - are the ones in the greatest trouble.

Another stunning fail by the EU.

Ireland was still a net recipient of EU funds long after their per capita GDP passed that of one of the principal mugs paying for it!

France looks to be in trouble with their new President.

_________________
"Life is a tough Teacher, it gives you the test first and the lesson later"
Anonymous

In a poll conducted by a national television station today, 85% of Greeks want to remain in the Euro but they reject the austerity measures enforced on them. Over 64% of Greeks prefer a government of national unity. European leaders say you either carry on with the austerity measures or else... but the French seem to be more understanding and sympathetic towards Greece than any of the other member European states.

It is a catch 22 situation and the election results on 17th June will be the make or break of the country.

The euro problem was that it set up a currency union without the mechanisms necessary to deal with the inevitable imbalances -- basically, fiscal transfers to even them out.

As is, Germany and the other stronger economies in effect got an artificially cheap currency which hugely boosted their exports, while the periphery got bubble-causing capital inflows. Without some form of support for the weaker economies to offset that there were always going to be potential problems.

Greece in addition had and has a very poor system with low top end taxation and a weak safety net, and big budget deficits. In that they were atypical, though -- pre-crisis, Spain had a budget surplus, Ireland close to one, and even Italy had a modest deficit (though a high national debt).

The EU mandarins seem to imagine that it's possible for countries to improve the situation with a scorched-earth policy of austerity, cuts and selloffs, despite the fact that the more practically-minded economists are pointing out that destroying your economy is not the best way to save it, and that the flip side of Germany/France being able to build markets and export capital in good times is the necessity to give their customers a hand in tough times if they want to carry on being in a strong position.

Greece in particular would probably be better out than in. It'll be a tough year or two, but at least then there is some decent prospect of recovery (it's worked before). Yes, the New Drachma would devalue massively, but that's a good thing -- the last thing they need is an artificially overvalued currency that makes it unattractive to buy from them.

Trying to kick the can down the road under the current system is just going to result in up to a decade of Great Depression-like grinding disaster, and the likely consequences of that are unpleasant both economically and politically.

there's something wrong with an arrangement between countries which has no exit clause !

and I still don't understand how you can have monetary union without fiscal union.

the States of the USA have monetary AND fiscal union, but the Euro zone has monetary union without fiscal union. It was bound to go sour sooner or later

_________________
Hatter

Spartacus.

The French will be more understanding. They are really a "Club Med" economy that thinks it's a northern europe economy.

Electing Hollande will only accelerate them towards the buffers, if the markets don't prevent him.

mozzerb

An on the button comment.

It's a pity the those in charge of the political EU refuse to acknowledge economic reality, which is why the Euro "crisis" will run and run.

Dear friends, I feel I have to say a lot about this post.

What the world hears about Greece is the outcome of a complicated situation.

It is a fact that the people of Greece are in troubles and they are very upset, desperate and angry with what broke their stability and have caused the crisis to them.

They wish to punish the “political – economical- system” and reject the heavy economic measurements. They are thinking, under this tremendous pressure, to vote for going out of the European Union and the Euro currency.

I do not think anyhow that this will happen. This would be like committing suicide. In the next weeks the majority of the people will take a cool and proper decision to stay in Europe and pay the (unfair) price for this.

For the majority of the Greeks Europe it is not money. Europe is the culture and the society where we belong and share the same ideals. Actually we are the border, the frontiers of these ideals.

Before anyhow some people say that the French and German taxpayers pay so much money for the “lazy” Greeks, please consider the bellow facts and make your own conclusions.

1. Greeks work more hours per week than any other European citizen. The difference is that our country is not tuned up well, so we work riding a Citroen 2CV car when the others ride a Porsche.

2. Greece entered the European customs and monetary union. I am not sure if Europe did a favor to Greece. I think the opposite. Greece became a good and easy to manipulate customer, not a partner.

The country of Greece with the poor transportation system, the old fashion and partly disorganized market and the poor state organization, it was impossible to equally stand up and compete the economic and European industrial super powers.

Greece broke down it’s customs borders and their monetary protection to face defend less the well organized European companies and their advanced marketing systems and superb financial strength. It is like you organize a race with a Porsche 918 a Renault DeZir and a VW-Beetle of the 60’s. No chance. So the Greek national economy soon was demolished.

3. Europe accepted Bulgaria to the Union. Bulgaria is in touch with Greece. Soon the Bulgarian trade and industry invaded into the Greek market braking down the Greek industry and trade, as they run at a cost of the ¼ of Greece. Europe paid no attention to this.

4. If German tax payers complain about their money, they should consider also: Germany gets loans with 1% interest rate and Germany grands loans to Greece with 6%. German state made in 2 years 50 billion Euro profit out of Greece.

5. Germany after WWII paid their war compentations to all European countries except Greece. During the occupation of Greece by the 3rd Reich, the country was forced to give an obligatory loan for Germany to finance the war. This loan was never returned. Both amounts could almost pay off all of the Greek dept of today.

6. German tax payers must also know that Greeks are their best customers. They consume billions for German products and some of them are sold with corruption and political pressure.

Greek army has 8 times many more “Main Battle Tanks” (Leopards) made in Germany, than the actual German Army. And to push the sales for so many tanks, different ways are applied. Political pressure and dirty money given by the companies to their “Greek” connections.

7. German Submarines were bought that they never worked. Greece has paid the 80% of the contract, (a billion of Euro) but the submarines will never see the sea water. They are defective; they will list 15 degrees if they ever touch the water.

8. I do not wish to say more about the scandals of Siemens and other companies; these are best known from the German news media.

9. France made also very good business with Greece. They sell good military planes and Frigates to Greece. For been so good Greece pay a little more, actually the double.

10. You might wonder why these things can happen and why not to been stopped. Here we have the key point. Greek politician are an easy part to be manipulated and corrupted by big money.

A former Greek Defense minister took 50 million US dollars under the table to sign for the Russian TOR-M1 missile system and more that 100 million Euro to sign for the German submarines. Fortunately he had no time to buy the Eurofighters.

11. For what we are responsible and we deserve to be accused is that we vote for all these corrupted governments the last 30 years. But we must agree that money can also buy votes ….. and these money came from Europe

I also want to tell you that Europe is not in fair play with Greece, from another point of view. From my point of view, of my small personal dimensions.

I am a businessman. I run a hobby shop in Athens. I am in Europe but I have no fair chances to be in the united European market on equal terms and be in a fair play for selling my products.

It is very simple.

- A German company can sell to customers in Greece with 19% VAT. I can sell to a German customer with 23% VAT. This is no equal. It is an unfair competition.

- A German company can send by DHL a 12 kilo parcel to Greece with 28,20 Euro. If I send the same parcel back I will pay 85 euro.

- A German company is running on low running cost, because the country is well organized. I run my company on the double running cost.

- The milk in Germany cost 50-60 cents of the Euro, In Greece the milk is 120 cents and it is not that good.

Not to be misunderstood. I have no hard feelings for Germans. My first wife was German, I have many friends there, we enjoy our company togather, and more that all I admire this country!

Conclusion:

Greece is in deep troubles for years now but all these must be corrected from both sides and Greece must have a chance, with fair treatment to be able to comply with our obligations and not only to stay with but also to catch up with Europe.

If now Europe is on the target sight of world’s monetary control system, is another subject to discuss and for sure Greece has nothing to do with this.

_________________
Costas, Athens
My Stamps

Interesting post Costas - from Greece itself.

Votes so far -

===============

OLL: Do You Think Greece Will Exit The Euro?

Poll runs till Mon Jul 23, 2012 13:52:05

1. Yes ... within 6 months. 28% 28% [ 9 ]
2. Yes ... within 6 - 12 months. 31% 31% [ 10 ]
3. Yes ... within 12 - 18 months. 13% 13% [ 4 ]
4. Yes ... within 18 - 24 months. 3% 3% [ 1 ]
5. Yes ... but in more than 24 months. 6% 6% [ 2 ]
6. No they will never exit the Euro. 13% 13% [ 4 ]
7. Have no opinion 6% 6% [ 2 ]

Total votes : 32

I think Greece may exit the Eurozone and go back to the Drachma in the next 6 months. That is purely because they will have to default on their loans.

If they don't default and take on even more debt, it would result in a generation of financial distress for the Greeks as their manufacturing industry, mineral resources, agriculture, etc. are all too small to service their loans debt properly.

All in all they really are screwed.

The only possibility that I can see is for their tourism industry to be their main foreign income source. If they can rearrange that with lower pricing for hotels, airfares, food, etc. they may well take a lot of the tourist trade from southern Spain and France.

I suspect that if they do return to the Drachma, they will print off so much new currency that they will end up in a hyper inflation situation and that will not be good.

@COSTAS_GR

I couldn't agree more with your post (don't want to quote it for sake of shortness). Basically, "superpowers" are forcing and cheating on small nations. They offer euro and NATO integrations but under their terms. Why would Greece need such an fire power as mentioned in your post!? There is no real reason except the fact that Germany needs market for their huge weapon industry.

Also big few are doing everything to protect their markets and to force small countries to accept unfair trading conditions covered under disguise of free trade and other b....it! My country has huge expenses to stay "NATO compatible", we had to change standard to 5.56 cal from previous 7.62 cal, not a big change some will say but it is a fact that we had to destroy huge amount of AK-47 rifles and ammunition for the same, this alone would account for huge money!
Not to mention replacing almost all of other weaponry in arsenals, and it is important to take in account fact that Bosnia was a heart of weapon industry of former Yugoslavia (which used to be serious military power, stronger then most smaller European countries, and at 10-th place in the world in conventional sense, since we never aspired to develop Nuclear, even we had capacities to start working on it).

Fact will remain that for this crisis in EU most of responsibility belongs to few strong countries who taught that their corporations will be able to manipulate small and weaker countries indefinitely, now, when s..t hit the ground everybody is looking for someone outside their lines to blame. We here in ex-YU have a sentence, something like "he is a restless like a Greece in jail" and it was obvious that Greece people will not let it go! I can't wait to see what will happen in France when similar scenario hits it! We will look Paris at flame again, people of France will show even more resistance to taking blame for errors of politicians and CEO-s of multinational corporations and bankers.

Interesting ...

To-date, 61% believe that Greece will exit the Euro within 12 months.

There's an old saying " believe half of what you see and none of what you hear".

With Photoshop and other image manipulation software that saying should be downgraded to "believe none of what you see and none of what you hear"

_________________
Tony