Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

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Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

Hope not is the short answer.

But with the rhetoric on both sides evident in the newswires in recent times you have to wonder.

Anyone can see the rise of China as a superpower.

And it’s ambition in the South China Sea is for all to observe, but is that where it ends?

Is it only a matter of time before the Chinese and US militaries clash?

And what of little old Australia? Caught in the middle it would seem.

The Chinese could sail an aircraft carrier down our east coast tomorrow and there’s nothing we could do about it.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by OldDuffer1 »

I think it very unlikely. Despite the rhetoric coming out of USA, for domestic consumption, all the major economies are far too entangled these days.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by gavin-h »

Rigs wrote:Is it only a matter of time before the Chinese and US militaries clash?
No, nothing more than a good old-fashioned p155ing contest! :idea:

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Chkpoint Charlie »

With Trump complaining "why did other past presidents have more nukes then I do?" And when told of the all the past negotiations to dismantle existing weapons on both sides and that is the reason why. He kept asking the same foolish question for a couple of weeks! When the President of the United States is an unreasonable fool there is always a chance of a stupid over the top reaction to anything China does.

So, will there be a conflict, it has already began! Tariffs and trade negotiations in an era of global economics, why is he being allowed to do this? No more immigration from anywhere that is not white, all trade must be to only our benefit, let the pandemic lower the number of people that are a burden on our economy. Move more of the worlds wealth and control to our top 1%. Reshape the globe the way we want it, once it is broken.

And there is nothing anyone in the world can do to stop it, does anyone think that concessions will be made to Hong Kong by China? The more people rise up, the easier it is to impose martial law and pass draconian laws that "protect the people".

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Somerset »

Possibly. I don't think either want a war as both economies would be hard hit. But China keeps stealing industrial secrets and both countries are ramping up their trade war of words.

I think some sort of clash is very likely, probably in the South China Sea - but I don't think it will develop into something larger

I think nations go to war as they see it as less worse than not going to war: and I don't think either have got this far

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Global Administrator »

Rigs wrote:
And what of little old Australia? Caught in the middle it would seem.

The Chinese could sail an aircraft carrier down our east coast tomorrow and there’s nothing we could do about it.
Under the Maritime Laws that have existed for 100s of years, that is, and has always been, legal AFAIK.

If they stay in International Waters, they can have their entire fleet legally there.

Back to conflict. Luckily Trump will be gone in November, (a 20-30% unemployment rate there ensures that!) and someone remotely sane will regain the Presidency, thank goodness for the planet.

It is were not for COVID, this lunatic might well have been re-elected in the absence of a decent Democrat candidate, and THEN you'd have 4 years of a spoilt brainless brat with his finger on the button, who listens to advice from no-one.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by stallzer »

Let's hope it never happens. It could be the end of the world. I won't say that it would never happen because we have a certified maniac at the controls and he needs to mask his failures with the virus somehow.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by fletches1 »

Rigs wrote:
The Chinese could sail an aircraft carrier down our east coast tomorrow and there’s nothing we could do about it.
Well, they won't be coming to Queensland. Border closed !! :D
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Rigs »

Speak of the devil, a piece from News.com just now:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/prepa ... 6a0dcdb946

'Prepare for worst-case scenario': China ramps up military amid rising global tensions
China’s leader has told its military to step up its preparedness for armed combat, as relations with Australia and the US deteriorate.

news.com.auMAY 27, 202011:24AM

China will step up its preparedness for armed combat and improve its ability to carry out military tasks, according to state media reports.

Speaking on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, President Xi Jinping said the coronavirus pandemic is affecting China’s military standing, saying the country’s defence forces need to up their preparedness for armed combat.

Mr Xi ordered the military to think about worst-case scenarios and battle preparedness, and be able to deal with complex situations and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, according to state-run Xinhua news agency.

“It is necessary to explore ways of training and preparing for war because epidemic control efforts have been normalised,” Xi was quoted by the state-run Xinhua news agency.

“It is necessary to step up preparations for armed combat, to flexibly carry out actual combat military training, and to improve our military’s ability to perform military missions.”

RELATED: China’s warning to Australia

He said China's performance in fighting the new coronavirus has shown the success of military reform, and that the armed forces should explore new ways of training amid the pandemic.

The People’s Liberation Army navy’s Liaoning and Shandong have been engaged in combat readiness training in the tightly controlled Bohai Bay.

China is preparing to deploy the two new aircraft carriers for deployment off the coast of Taiwan, amid fears that may raise tensions with the US.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Global Administrator »

Why on earth these dopes in Canberra have repeatedly told China we are backing the USA into the COVID investigation, only they know.

A six year old knows it was smarter to stay totally silent on it and let the USA and China bang heads on it alone in the headlines, and not make US the headline.

We are a tiny, tiny, naive pawn here - USA is egging us on to be defiant, and these dopes have fallen for the bait.

If China stops importing our wine, dairy and coal etc, they have many other sources, and can freeze us out for a year as a ''lesson'', but WE do not have other outlets to replace that volume.

The economy here is totally stuffed as it is, and that will be the final straw. :roll: :roll:
Image
"Mess with the Bull, and you WILL get the horns ........... "
Now these idiots have created exactly this scenario -


https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/new- ... 2e5de041e2

‘Cold War’: Chinese government issues warning to Australia after trade war threats with US

China has issued a new warning to Australia, flagging “extreme danger” and saying our economy could suffer a “fatal blow”.

China hits back at Australia with crippling trade tariffs as tensions heat up over Coronavirus investigation.

The Chinese government has warned Australia to “distance” itself from the United States amid growing tensions between the two countries, saying it would be “extremely dangerous” for Canberra to get involved.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner, while the US is one of our key strategic allies. But Beijing says any show of support for the latter will deliver our economy a “fatal blow”.


“If the Trump administration plunges the world into a ‘new Cold War,’ forcing China to take countermeasures against the US and its allies, it would be extremely dangerous for Canberra to become a player in a diplomatic club led by the US, given Australia's high dependence on the Chinese economy,” an article in the Global Times said.

“Once Australia is regarded as a supporter of the US in a ‘new Cold War,’ China-Australia economic ties will inevitably suffer a fatal blow.

“This is why Canberra needs to closely watch Washington's attacks which include placing Chinese firms on its sanctions backlist.

“This offers Canberra a window to observe whether there will be a ‘new Cold War’ between China and the US and to reconsider its strategic relations with Washington.”

It went on: “Australia's economic deterrent force is much smaller than the US', so China to some extent will enjoy more room to fight back against Australia with countermeasures if Canberra supports Washington... it means Australia may feel more pain than the US.”

The Chinese government has repeatedly accused the US of pushing for this “new Cold War”, further fuelling the prospect of a trade war between the two countries.

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, accused the Trump administration of attempting to “change China” and keep the rising superpower from modernising.

“China has no intention to change, still less replace the United States,” he said on Sunday. “It’s time for the United States to give up its wishful thinking of changing China and stopping 1.4 billion people in their historic march toward

With a not-so-subtle reference to Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who have repeatedly suggested the Chinese Communist Party is a threat to the world, he said US political attacks on China over the coronavirus and global trade matters “are taking China-US relations hostage and pushing our two countries to the brink of a new cold war”.

“This dangerous attempt to turn back the will of history will undo the fruits of decades-long China-US co-operation, dampen America’s own development prospects, and put world stability and prosperity in jeopardy,” Mr Wang said.

The debate over trade has intensified as the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic becomes more pronounced.

The US, which is closing in on 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, is trying to pin the blame squarely on the Chinese Communist Party, while Beijing says the Trump administration is trying to keep it from becoming a global power.

The state-run Global Times newspaper said on Sunday that China was “considering punitive countermeasures” against some American politicians leading the efforts against it.

“China won't just strike back symbolically, but will impose countermeasures that will make them feel the pain,” the report says.

The World Health Organisation has called on Beijing to bring them in to probe the source of the deadly virus.

“China is open to working with the international scientific community to look into the source of the virus,” Mr Wang said. “Fairness means the process be free of political interference, respect the sovereignty of all countries, and oppose any presumption of guilt.”

A paper published by the World Economic Forum on Sunday revealed that the value of Chinese exports fell by 17.2 per cent year on year in the first two months of 2020, while imports slowed by 4 per cent.

“Major industries have suffered at the hands of COVID-19, with nuclear reactors, electrical machinery and equipment, plastics and organic chemicals among the worst affected … Globalisation will work best through the adoption of a strong international co-operation network,” the paper said.

China has also proposed controversial national security legislation for Hong Kong, which could prompt US sanctions and threaten the city’s status as a financial hub, White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien said overnight.

“It looks like, with this national security law, they’re going to basically take over Hong Kong, and if they do … Secretary Pompeo will likely be unable to certify that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy, and if that happens, there will be sanctions that will be imposed on Hong Kong and China,” he said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

It comes as the US has downplayed threats to Australia that Victoria’s Belt and Road agreement with China could see the US “simply disconnect” from Australia if it impacts telecommunications.

Following Mr Pompeo’s comments the US Ambassador, Arthur Culvahouse, stressed his nation is confident its ally down under will protect the security of its telecommunications networks or those of its intelligence partners.

“We have made no secret of our concerns about 5G, and we commend Australia for its leadership on the issue,” Mr Culvahouse said.

“We are not aware that Victoria has engaged in any concrete projects under BRI, let alone projects impinging on telecommunications networks, which we understand are a federal matter.

“If there were telecommunications initiatives that we thought put the integrity of our networks at risk, of course, we would have to take a close look at that, as the secretary suggested.

“We have every confidence that Australia, as a close ally and Five Eyes partner, would take every measure necessary to ensure the security of its telecommunications networks, as it has repeatedly done in the past.”
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Chkpoint Charlie »

Sorry to find Australia stuck in the middle between two governments that will do anything to look their best in the eyes of their people, and the rest of the world.

If Australia tries to calmly stay out of it, the US will scream what a terrible lack of loyalty Australia is showing the world as one of the US allies.

China will see it as weakness and continue to try and get its way with its trading partners.

Economically this is a global network that needs to function without anyone gaming the system in their favor. There will be competition which if done with ethics will be best for all, but people always have tried to take advantage of any weakness that they come across.

I will say that the largest problem going forward is nationalism, the EU is a great thing, let the trade and travel of people go where it will as easily as it can, brilliant! Everyone benefits, there are problems but they can be sorted out quickly.

I am optimistic regarding the near future, just like the New England saying, "Don't like the weather, wait a minute!" We will need to get along better with our neighbors which always involves compromise, that is very hard for people to do, makes them look weak.

Get past that and things get much better fast. Also we need to learn how to listen to what the others are saying and comprehend correctly what was said. Too many people love to hear the sound of their own voice.

I would like to read how other people take a larger view of society as they see it.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by maszki »

Inevitable? No.

Will a conflict occur? Probably.

If it does occur it will be because one side of the other tries to p... a little bit further than the other...(sorry GavinH, just following your line) that is, an error of judgement where one of the parties actually starts to believe their own claims of superiority, invincibility and success with a pre-emptive strike arising from some minor irritation such as military manoeuvres in the Taiwan straits or adjacent to the south china sea islands; or economic manoeuvres that smacks at the very heart of the others economy (shades of the jewish boycott of Germany in 1933).

Unfortunately the leaders of these two countries are not really paying attention at present. Both have problems either of 'saving face' so important in Asian cultures (note the reaction of China to accusations regarding COVID19) or re-election/saving their job/legacy-equally important for US leaders. If either sees an advantage by pressing 'the' button then a war is probable.

Caught between a rock and a hard place..or between a nitwit and a half-wit; you decide who is whom.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Rigs »

Maybe it’s a case that the Chinese military wants a shot at the title (do we really know who is in charge?)

And the flipside of that is the Pentagon is probably happy for them to try ...

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Global Administrator »

One textbook way for superpowers to boost industry and production and create jobs is a handy war.

Two massive superpowers both with massive unemployment at the exact same time is going to be interesting.

Trump can't get re-elected with 20% unemployment.

HOWEVER Incumbents near always get re-elected in times of war. Voters want to see the Status Quo retained.

If the "enemy" is those damn commie Chinese, great Goebbels appeal to his ignorant redneck voter base.

Anyone here good at joining up dots?
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by OldDuffer1 »

.

Only trouble is there wouldn't be any voters to vote! (Or anything else).

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Rigs »

Global Administrator wrote:
Anyone here good at joining up dots?
I’ve just joined the dots, and at the risk of sounding pessimistic, it doesn’t augur well for the coming decade ...

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Chkpoint Charlie »

China Approves Plan to Rein In Hong Kong, Defying Worldwide Outcry

Beijing ordered that a new law be written to extend many of mainland China’s security practices to Hong Kong, creating broad powers to quash unrest.

Ok, this is bad news, again, nobody can do anything to stop this. China knew what Hong Kong would do, I bet this "new" law was written years ago and just needed to be updated to fit the circumstances. This is going to move very fast, I predict that the US will have a aircraft carrier in the area by July, we have been known to go to war at the drop of a hat, and we were the ones who dropped it.

This is the only way our impeached idiot will have any chance to remain in office. Hey, try it, what do we have to lose? Sound familiar? We gave him the power, now when they try to revoke it, he just vetoes it. Neither side is bluffing now, our allies should not get with the program but speak out rationally against any escalation on either side.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by OldDuffer1 »

Not a great fan of Pompeo (or his mad religious beliefs) but I think he is right in this case- China depends on Hong Kong as a financial hub with the West.

On the other hand, as you suggest, if you push them too far they will do anything not to "lose face". And Trump will do anything to not lose the election!

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by Catweazle »

I'm no apocalyptic nerd, baked-bean-stocker or conspiracy theorist, but there'll be something in my life time. This COVID-19 is just one thing.

Perhaps it'll make for some interesting postal history...

Funny story – this thought came to mind just last year before all these events. Could've said "told you so!" :lol: We Aussies have had it too good really, a comparatively cushiony lifestyle for the last 70 years or so. My generation especially (millennials) totally freak when they realise that they cannot control every aspect of their own lives.

They expect life to be a positive party with self-love and self-care from end to end. As we've seen with the toilet paper – contemporary Australians don't know how to cope with such things. They panic, then it's every man for himself. Pathetic, really. Unlike the bush fires where we all chipped in to look after each other.

What do you think, in that regard?

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitabl

Post by faro »

Catweazle wrote:Funny story – this thought came to mind just last year before all these events. Could've said "told you so!" :lol: We Aussies have had it too good really, a comparatively cushiony lifestyle for the last 70 years or so. My generation especially (millennials) totally freak when they realise that they cannot control every aspect of their own lives.
Presumably nobody has told them how much of Australia has already been bought/leased by the PRC and USA? ;)
Why invade a country when you can just buy it instead...

Even the Solomon Islands backed down on leasing a naval base island to the PRC despite their politicans having accepted bribes to switch allegiance from Taiwan and looking to sell citizenship for "investment" without any checks for corruption.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

Looks like ScoMo has seen the writing on the wall:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/defen ... 4192663481

Article talks about long range missiles and other for Australia as we are “the epicentre of rising great power tension”.

I feel a lot safer now, do you?

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by OldDuffer1 »

Now, of course, we have the Hong Kong situation. Britain has promised settled status to around 3 million Hong Kong citizens and I understand Australia has made some noises in that direction.

As mentioned above the USA is threatening to remove the special financial status of Hong Kong.

The Chinese say they will "retaliate". In the end it is economic interests which will be paramount- China depends on us as an export market and we depend on them for cheap consumer goods. Possibly, as described above, Australia has even more to lose?

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Global Administrator »

.
Our glorious PM Scomo also mentioned the 1930s several times yesterday.

Wonder what that was referring to?



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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by maszki »

OldDuffer1 wrote:
02 Jul 2020 21:12
Now, of course, we have the Hong Kong situation. Britain has promised settled status to around 3 million Hong Kong citizens and I understand Australia has made some noises in that direction.

As mentioned above the USA is threatening to remove the special financial status of Hong Kong.

The Chinese say they will "retaliate". In the end it is economic interests which will be paramount- China depends on us as an export market and we depend on them for cheap consumer goods. Possibly, as described above, Australia has even more to lose?

History is full of situations where one country depends upon another for raw materials and inevitably that dependency is resolved....one way or another.

Until recent times the resolution was by military conflict or by colonisation; more lately by economic pressure. China has the edge as she can effectively cripple Australia's economy.

For years we have allowed China to 'buy' Australian assets; just as for years we have been the faithful lapdog to US hegenomy.

The situation we are in is of our own making, and no 'long range anti-shipping' missiles fired from 'flying lemons' (the F35) will prevent a Chinese military action should she decide that is the way to go.

Apart from which, how long will it take for these defence purchases to actually be delivered? We contracted the F35 in 2002- how many are actually in Australia?

France won the contract for a few submarines some 4 years ago (I think the contract was signed last year) for deliveries in the 2030's.

Can we ask China to wait?

What about the US? The USA will do whatever is in her national interest.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by mikotz »

The latest agreement as an outcome of the trade war forced China to import more goods from US, especially agricultural products.

Now US is happy and hence the chance of an escalated military conflict is slim in the near future. However due to COVID 19 and other factors, the domestic needs in China draw close to saturation, while increasing the import from US implies decreasing the import (especially AGRICULTURAL products) from other countries.

At this perfect time point Australia was stood out by the politicians - now China has every reason to reduce the imports from Australia. Once an angry customer has left, it's very difficult to force him back to the shop.

Actually China & US have conducted another round of trade discussion WITHOUT involvement of Australia, and I won't be surprised if further OZ exports will be replaced by US exports to China.

It's a shame that Australia finally turned out to be a shield for US but ended up with the highest financial sacrifice...
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Global Administrator »

.
Well we do have a hi-tech submarine fleet.

Well it has COST us what a hi-tech submarine fleet would have cost, but we actually have some obsolete tin cans, almost none of which are operational at any time, due to the dopes who run Defence here.

But yes we have a fleet of state of the art fighter jets too. Well they were ordered way back, and do not really work as fighter planes we now get told, are about as obsolete at Spitfires, but as always, we paid many times what anyone sane would have paid.

And I think the Army has some trucks and stuff. Maybe a tank or two - I do not know for sure.

The Chinese would wipe them all off the face of the planet in days I suspect. Sad but true.

And with Dump deciding if he would step in, in case of any aggression do not hold your breath. :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by gavin-h »

OldDuffer1 wrote:
02 Jul 2020 21:12
Now, of course, we have the Hong Kong situation. Britain has promised settled status to around 3 million Hong Kong citizens and I understand Australia has made some noises in that direction.

As mentioned above the USA is threatening to remove the special financial status of Hong Kong.

The Chinese say they will "retaliate". In the end it is economic interests which will be paramount- China depends on us as an export market and we depend on them for cheap consumer goods. Possibly, as described above, Australia has even more to lose?
I said it in the '90s when the future of Hong Kong under Chinese Communism was being discussed and it's worth repeating now.

Why doesn't Australia lease a chunk of land (or even give it for free...) and facilitate the creation of a "New Hong Kong"? The long-term economic benefits for Australia would be immense. I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would see the benefit of relocating away from the influence and hostility of Communist China. :idea:

The only surprise with the current situation is that China has waited 23 years before trying to "assimilate" HK. :shock:

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Global Administrator »

gavin-h wrote:
02 Jul 2020 22:53

Why doesn't Australia lease a chunk of land (or even give it for free...) and facilitate the creation of a "New Hong Kong"?

We did.

It is called CHATSWOOD - a mile or so from where we live. :lol: :lol:

I was there last Friday - you could be in Nathan Road.

And unlike you socialist Brits, we charge them a million dollars for a tiny apartment, and they do not seem to mind.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

gavin-h wrote:
02 Jul 2020 22:53
Why doesn't Australia lease a chunk of land (or even give it for free...) and facilitate the creation of a "New Hong Kong"? The long-term economic benefits for Australia would be immense. I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would see the benefit of relocating away from the influence and hostility of Communist China. :idea:
It's a great idea.

Some years ago I toyed with launching a political party: "Sell WA Party".

The premise being we flog off WA and all its minerals to the highest bidder, and every citizen gets $100M cash payout up front. I reckon it would have been a real vote winner and very appealing to the great unwashed (greed will always win over loyalty, hands down).

No doubt China would be in the front of the queue.

Rationale: Best to sell it to them before they take it, and after all Perth is safely 3,000kms away from the East Coast. Consider that we have been digging WA up and sending to the Chinese by the container load for the last 50 years anyway - why not sell it one go?

However, maybe we should try gavin-h's idea instead. Try our luck and lease it to them for 100 years - good luck in getting it back.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by satsuma »

Some facts to consider:

China Land Area: about 9½ million sq kilometres
Australia Land Area: about 7¾ million sq kilometres (about 77%)

China Population: about 1.4 billion
Australia Population: about 25 million (less than 2%)

Chinese Military : about 2 million
Australian Military: about 57 thousand (less than 3%)

China Nuclear Armament: about 300 (estimated) with land based, submarine based and bomber based delivery options
Australia Nuclear Armament: zero (admitted to) but has nuclear friends who might respond.

What's up for grabs?
Australia is the world's

2nd largest producer of gold
4th largest producer of coal
26% of world's export iron but barely scratching reserves
25% of world's export bauxite/aluminium
10% of the world's copper exports
40% of world's uranium reserves

2nd largest exporter of beef
5th largest exporter of wheat
The largest exporter of wool

etc etc

If you were China would you pick a fight with Australia or the USA?

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

satsuma wrote:
03 Jul 2020 10:39
If you were China would you pick a fight with Australia or the USA?
That's the golden question really, isn't it?

Would the yanks step in?

Not really sure they'd be happy to see Pine Gap threatened.

And, we could always rely on our kiwi cousins, Satsuma?

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by satsuma »

Rigs wrote:
03 Jul 2020 11:12
satsuma wrote:
03 Jul 2020 10:39
If you were China would you pick a fight with Australia or the USA?
That's the golden question really, isn't it?

Would the yanks step in?

Not really sure they'd be happy to see Pine Gap threatened.

And, we could always rely on our kiwi cousins, Satsuma?
I suspect the US would be more worried about the Ranger, Kakadu uranium than Pine Gap.

The data from Pine gap could be replicated, albeit less conveniently from other sites.

The uranium were China to control it, would result in a geopolitical power shift.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

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Rigs wrote:
03 Jul 2020 11:12


And, we could always rely on our kiwi cousins, Satsuma?

Of course, we can. However timing is everything - their Patrol boat is in for service in August and December, and Air NZ is using their plane, but they might loan it back in a crisis. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by satsuma »

Global Administrator wrote:
03 Jul 2020 11:41
Rigs wrote:
03 Jul 2020 11:12


And, we could always rely on our kiwi cousins, Satsuma?

Of course, we can. However timing is everything - their Patrol boat is in for service in August and December, and Air NZ is using their plane, but they might loan it back in a crisis. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Now then, be nice, we could hurt China economically by refusing to export our Kiwifruit to them :!: :lol:

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

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satsuma wrote:
03 Jul 2020 12:14

Now then, be nice, we could hurt China economically by refusing to export our Kiwifruit to them :!: :lol:

Absolutely - we can both starve them all to death. :D :D

We could withhold all our wine exports and beef and Barley too. And starve them all even faster. Oops - they just told us to stick all those where the sun does not shine.

Anyway, our Defence Boffins are not are dopey as they might seem at first or even second glance.

They announced today that China will never have a clue what is going on here Militarily, as they just signed a high-level Telco deal with a leading overseas totally secure provider for all our Military Communications. They promised not to share any of it with any foreign powers.

I think they are American or Israeli or German - they are called Huawei. :!: :!: :!:

NOTHING but the best, as usual, for our Defence Trillions. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

Global Administrator wrote:
03 Jul 2020 14:18
Anyway, our Defence Boffins are not are dopey as they might seem at first or even second glance.
Yes, it emerged yesterday that long range missiles are to be deployed as a deterrent, and THEY PRIVATELY ADVISED THE CHINESE OF THIS, before announcing it to the Australian public (!)

Go figure.

Can someone please advise where in "The Art of War" you politely advise the enemy where your troops are?

But fair's fair. The Chinese advised everyone before they turned the atolls in the South China Sea into a fortress ...
for "research" purposes only, never to be used militarily.

Stupid ... Dopey ... Defence ... Boffins.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

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Australia sources NASA badged rockets to petrify the Chinese aggressors.   Extra AA Batteries are also on order.
Australia sources NASA badged rockets to petrify the Chinese aggressors. Extra AA Batteries are also on order.


Yes, but China knew we had rockets - as they indirectly sold them to us. :lol: :lol: :lol:

These Aero-127 hi-tech deterrents, the Defence Department sourced on eBay via a middle man, and were very good value at $12.99 apiece to the middleman, and even have a cool NASA sticker on them to look extra fearsome.

The middleman quoted $A4.2 million each to our Genius Defence Buyers, and they ordered 40 as they do as you need spares, and you also assume most will never be in working order, like our alleged Submarine Fleet.

They are working on the PAYLOAD capabilities now, as dropping water or sand on Shanghai is not likely to cause much harm or alarm. :roll: :roll: :roll:

And we are not smart enough to use Uranium as a weapon (or for anything else) despite owning most of the world's supply - leaving it in the ground instead of making billions year is SUCH a super cunning plan. However a Brigadier General suggested they cable tie a piece of Yellowcake Ore to each rocket nose.

He is not entirely sure if that will work like a Nuclear Weapon, but thinks it may possibly have some effect. It might go boom, or maybe you need to do something to the Yellow Cake? Tough call. There is a Defence White Paper on that issue being worked on by 36 consultants. The final report will be tabled in 2026.

That will add weight of course to these terrifying weapons, and the Military have decided to order some Duracell AA HEAVY DUTY batteries just to be certain that all bases are covered here. Can't be too cautious.

They were quoted $48,000 per AA battery, and said that looks high enough, and we will take them - no need for tenders. No need to cut corners in the National Defence. :!: :!: :!:


Australia sources NASA badged rockets to petrify the Chinese aggressors.   Extra AA Batteries are also on order.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by castores »

The way in which it concerns me most is

We tend to fall or walk blindly into major conflicts by what occurs before.
No-one really believing things can escalate.

(Loss of face doesn't help matters)

Next, The Thucydides trap
Every major rise of a new superpower/demise of an old superpower results in war.

Ensuring your citizens are behind you 110%, China has just issued the following:

"Recently, there has been a marked increase in racial discrimination and violence in Australia. The Australian media continue to incite anti-China and hatred of China sentiments," the Chinese warning said.

"Relevant Australian law enforcement agencies have arbitrarily searched Chinese citizens and seized their articles, which may cause harm to the personal and property safety of the Chinese citizens in Australia.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Australia remind Chinese citizens to be extra careful about the local security risks and be cautious about travelling to Australia in the near future."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-13/china-issues-upgraded ... a/12451626
(note, the red highlight is my doing)

Finally as far as are standing up to China over Covid-19 (or anything else for that matter), we lose either way.
Do nothing, China takes note.
Do something, China takes note.

China is stretching its arms.

I remember another person who wanted all the 'old country' back.
While we're at it.... this looks like a nice block..... plus we should take ownership of the Antarctic.... so there!

(a lot of things could be read into Morrison's speeches in relation to the 'new' world we face)
maxresdefault 900.jpg
How about 'The Oceanic Defence Pact'

All countries in the region who sign up and, based on GDP, your country contributes x% or x$.

All bases manned (and rotated) by 'Oceanic' troops, ie, from all countries involved.

Everything would benefit from it, trade, etc, economies would increase region wide - no-one left behind (I think I've heard that somewhere? oh right).
Australia : Islands : various countries : Thematics : etc

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by castores »

satsuma wrote:
03 Jul 2020 10:39
Some facts to consider:

China Land Area: about 9½ million sq kilometres
Australia Land Area: about 7¾ million sq kilometres (about 77%)

China Population: about 1.4 billion
Australia Population: about 25 million (less than 2%)

Chinese Military : about 2 million
Australian Military: about 57 thousand (less than 3%)

China Nuclear Armament: about 300 (estimated) with land based, submarine based and bomber based delivery options
Australia Nuclear Armament: zero (admitted to) but has nuclear friends who might respond.

What's up for grabs?
Australia is the world's

2nd largest producer of gold
4th largest producer of coal
26% of world's export iron but barely scratching reserves
25% of world's export bauxite/aluminium
10% of the world's copper exports
40% of world's uranium reserves

2nd largest exporter of beef
5th largest exporter of wheat
The largest exporter of wool

etc etc

If you were China would you pick a fight with Australia or the USA?
We do look inviting don't we :o

Not to mention they are currently trying to stop desert taking over... currently planted millions (or is that billions?) of trees to fend off encroachment.

On another note, best way to kick-start an economy after a time like this = war.

On another note, Hong Kong - haven't China been setting up Shenzhen as a 'better' mainland version for quite sometime?

Not to mention, sure we feel 'nationalism' but in comparison...

I suppose the "watch this space" would be Taiwan.

Re 'Oceanic Defence Pact': it should be the Indo-Oceanic Defence Pact - would be nice to include India in this.... and after all we can't forget WA!

On another note:

If we were in the future looking back at the 20s (and there had been a war) historians would point to a number of early 'markers'.

The first of those would be fortifying attols; spending money in small nations like Africa, Oceania, etc; law changes in 'outposts' of China; media exploiting fake news of discrimination against nationals overseas; bullying of other nations; and... well the rest hasn't been written.

Of course nothing may occur in the long run, but we certainly have the beginnings of a good dramatic movie just in this.

Back to Morrison, After Covid-19.... blah blah blah, oh and we're buying a whole lot of missiles.....

Cool!

Shenzhen vs Hong Kong:
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-hk-v-shenzhen/
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

Looks like the US has just raised the stakes a notch:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/south ... ecb01091a1

"South China Sea: US clash with China now ‘inevitable’"

The US has declared China’s territorial grab “illegal” and it wants its “bullied” neighbours to stand their ground. The gloves are now off.
A clash within the South China Sea is now almost inevitable. The US has declared China’s territorial grab “illegal”. It wants its “bullied” neighbours to stand their ground.

“We are making clear: Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,” a US statement issued earlier this week asserts.

It’s not a change of opinion. But it is a loud declaration of intent to establish a ‘line in the sand’ that Beijing should not cross.

“The United States is now explicitly declaring it illegal for China to engage in fishing, oil and gas exploration, or other economic activities in those areas, or to interfere with its neighbours’ rights to do so,” says Asia Maritime Initiative senior fellow Gregory Poling.

“The next time China does engage in illegal harassment of its neighbours within their EEZs (exclusive economic zones), a more forceful US response might lead China to double down out of a sense of nationalism,” he added.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

.
Chinese trade tariffs on Australian exports and now the infamous tweet of a doctored photo of an Australian soldier with a knife at an Afghan's throat.

Relations at an all time low between Australia and China, with Chinese rhetoric today threatening Australian warships if they traverse the South China Sea.
.
Financial Review 1/12/2020
Financial Review 1/12/2020
.
At least they are finally showing their true colours ...

What's this got to do with the US?

Nothing at first glance, but perhaps the Chinese strategy here is really to test the US/Australia relationship, whether they wish to join the rhetoric?

US government notably silent at this writing regarding the current Sino-Aussie spat.

.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by castores »

ABC News

The US ambassador to Australia has had something to say.
I expect more to be said.

usa.png


And now countries around the world are spruiking Australian Wine :D
Thank you :D

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by fletches1 »

I have a feeling China may have shot themselves in the foot with the doctored photo. Public opinion is likely to run against them. Many people are silent on their opinion of Chinese "Expansion", but this is likely to bring those who are quiet, out of the woodwork. ??
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by castores »

fletches1 wrote:
02 Dec 2020 16:22
I have a feeling China may have shot themselves in the foot with the doctored photo. Public opinion is likely to run against them. Many people are silent on their opinion of Chinese "Expansion", but this is likely to bring those who are quiet, out of the woodwork. ??
I agree.

I think it's a wake-up call for a lot of countries.

This is another example of CCP seeing how far they can push various governments.
With each success providing the road to push further.
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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

In the news from The Global Times :

The government mouthpiece also published an opinion piece blasting Australia as an “anti-China pioneer” with a “sense of anxiety” about being invaded.

“Due to its high degree of dependency on the US for security and the growing concern about the rise of China in the region, Canberra is very worried that Washington’s strategic contraction will aggravate risks of it being abandoned by Uncle Sam,” the op-ed read.


Well that pretty well sums it up, we're stuffed, with nowhere to go re trade, and the Chinese know it.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/australia-de ... 7e4f9ded10

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by maszki »

I wouldn't be so pessimistic.

Countries have withstood similar foreign actions/reactions in the past, Perhaps it is time Australia took a leaf from Venezuela, Iran and others which have had similar sanctions imposed upon them and begin the process to diversify its imports/exports (both the UK and rthe EU are looking for partners) and perhaps....just perhaps...re-invent a manufacturing sector.

Equally, there are a large number of infra-structure projects that are needed for water security, food sufficiency, energy generation, and transportation. Now would seem to be a good time to implement such projects.

Behind every pitfall is an opportunity. Is Morrison and our present government up to the task?

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

maszki wrote:
16 Dec 2020 03:41
I wouldn't be so pessimistic.
I wish I wasn't, however I view it thus:

The Chinese are now expanding their military capability at an incredible rate. For decades it was dormant, but by many accounts won't be long before they are on par with the U.S.

They are also expanding their presence across Asia/Pacific - e.g. just recently they have signed a MOU with PNG with plans to build a $200 million 'fishing' port at Daru on Australia's northern doorstep.

Fishing my arse.

Given their belligerence in the South China Sea, this is highly alarming for Australia and its neighbours.

Australia is incredibly vulnerable, and by this I mean the end of its 'natural' dominion (by virtue of its size) of regional issues in its immediate vicinity.

The Chinese will do as they please, and there's nothing to stop them.

Except the U.S.

That's if they decide to get involved.

In any case, do you see how the playing field has changed? Australia's fortunes are no now better than a football kicked around by two superpowers.

And the Americans, quite rightly, will want something in return for protection if it comes to that.

Australia has had it too good ever since Guadalcanal.

Either way the status quo of the last several decades for Australia in this region is gone forever ...

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Brit-Col »

Seems to me this thread is really about the “conflict” between Australia and China, rather than China and the USA.

Anyway, a number of interesting points raised for which I have no answers.

One thing I am quite confident of however is that the USA will not abandon Australia as an ally any time in the foreseeable future.

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by Rigs »

Brit-Col wrote:
16 Dec 2020 08:00
Seems to me this thread is really about the “conflict” between Australia and China, rather than China and the USA.
Hardly, but that’s the very point isn’t it?

A conflict between Australia and China becomes America vs China in the big picture if the US is the close ally as you highlight?

The current trade spat and geo-expansionary aspirations of the Chinese on our immediate doorstep and SE Asia are just small steps that could lead to that unthinkable outcome ...

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Re: Discussion: Is a Chinese/USA military conflict inevitable?

Post by satsuma »

Rigs wrote:
16 Dec 2020 05:52

I wish I wasn't, however I view it thus:

The Chinese are now expanding their military capability at an incredible rate. For decades it was dormant, but by many accounts won't be long before they are on par with the U.S.

They are also expanding their presence across Asia/Pacific - e.g. just recently they have signed a MOU with PNG with plans to build a $200 million 'fishing' port at Daru on Australia's northern doorstep.

Fishing my arse.

Given their belligerence in the South China Sea, this is highly alarming for Australia and its neighbours.

Australia is incredibly vulnerable, and by this I mean the end of its 'natural' dominion (by virtue of its size) of regional issues in its immediate vicinity.

The Chinese will do as they please, and there's nothing to stop them.

Except the U.S.

That's if they decide to get involved.

In any case, do you see how the playing field has changed? Australia's fortunes are no now better than a football kicked around by two superpowers.

And the Americans, quite rightly, will want something in return for protection if it comes to that.

Australia has had it too good ever since Guadalcanal.

Either way the status quo of the last several decades for Australia in this region is gone forever ...
Well with the highest elevation on Daru of 3 metres, just sit back and wait for global warming induced sea rise to submerge it :lol: :lol:

The fact is that there are several things Australia can do...

Beef up defensive capabilities.
Bring their nuclear capabilities out of mothballs.
Stop shipping raw minerals to China.

I was also interested in your comment, Australia has had it too good ever since Guadalcanal.

What do you mean by this? Too much peace and plenty? Minimal commitment to Global conflicts? Not enough cyclones and bushfires? Not enough grovelling to Uncle Sam? Not enough external threats? Too few pandemics?

It's almost like you think having a small population and lots of resources is unethical.

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