Are we in for a big stamp market crash?

News items. General trends, new issues, new policies etc. **Whatever** you like. WORLDWIDE. Start a new thread on your question. Please do not discuss ebay in THIS forum as we have a separate and popular Forum for that discussion.

Moderator: Volunteer Moderator Team

moonlight
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
Posts: 33
Joined: 01 Apr 2007 02:43
Location: Woodbridge Ontario Canada
Contact:

Are we in for a big stamp market crash?

Post by moonlight »

If anyone is following prices realized at US auction firm, have a look at this.

These prices are insane.

456 u 675 #675, 6c "Nebr." ovpt., an incomparable mint single that is quite likely the finest example in existence, an opinion supported by the PSE, which awarded this stamp the ultimate Gem 100 Jumbo grade, featuring extraordinarily large margins which are rarely encountered on any Kans.-Nebr. stamp, absolutely perfectly centered within these impressive borders, brilliantly rich color, pristine o.g., never hinged, superb; a true condition rarity destined for a record price; 1998 PF certificate and a 2007 PSE certificate (Gem 100 Jumbo; SMQ $2,100.00 for a mere 98); not only is this the only #675 to grade 100J, it is one of only three stamps in the entire Kans.-Nebr. series to receive this supreme grade. (Image) $75.00

SOLD for $10,000.00
Will close during Public Auction


Image[/url]
User avatar
erich
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 1853
Joined: 25 Jan 2007 05:25
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Contact:

Post by erich »

I think the "super-grade" stamps are a specialized market that caters to investors (and maybe some particularly well-off and perfectionist collectors) and has not affected the price of more ordinary stamps that much. I don't think the price of that 100J has trickled down to affecting, say, the average price of a F-VF Nebraska set.

A crash in that sort of material seems highly likely at some point, but should only affect those who have <cough> invested in it, and dealers who have made that sort of material a too-large part of their inventory.

My point of view is that I don't buy those kind of stamps, I don't sell them, and I don't have a stock of them. So what they do in the market isn't going to affect me or my customers very much.

Maybe I am missing out on some profits by not hunting down "raw" super-grade stamps and sending them in to be graded, but in the long run I feel better not spending on the grading fees and not worrying about when I need to get out of that market before it collapses.
moonlight
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
Posts: 33
Joined: 01 Apr 2007 02:43
Location: Woodbridge Ontario Canada
Contact:

Post by moonlight »

Does no one else feel these prices have reached a ridicules level? No matter who is buying. How much reasoning can justify these types of prices. I can not see this as an investment. I must be missing something.

Anthony
User avatar
iomoon
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 14569
Joined: 02 Jun 2007 22:34
Location: Alpine, Texas/ Scarsdale, New York
Contact:

Post by iomoon »

I agree entirely with Eric.

Only those who buy and sell in those contrivances will suffer if the market bubble bursts.

Like holding a complete set of gold-leafed kings and queens of England covers.
User avatar
erich
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 1853
Joined: 25 Jan 2007 05:25
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Contact:

Post by erich »

There is another thread on this issue:

http://www.stampboards.com/viewtopic.php?t=208

with the opinions of some people who deal in this sort of material, as well as people (myself included) who think the prices are crazy.
User avatar
ozstamps
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 13116
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 20:24
Location: A bar somewhere near you ....
Contact:

Post by ozstamps »

Nice post moonlight ..... who offered the $10,000 stamp?

Mind you, that is "ONLY" 153 times Scott cat as that stamp is scarce normally.

Some of these Investor Driven "Tulip Boom" things go for 1,000s of times Scott. :shock:
Last edited by ozstamps on 25 Jul 2007 05:11, edited 1 time in total.
.
Click HERE to see superb, RARE and unusual stamps, at FIXED low nett prices, high rez photos, and NO buyer fees etc!
moonlight
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
Posts: 33
Joined: 01 Apr 2007 02:43
Location: Woodbridge Ontario Canada
Contact:

Post by moonlight »

It was Shreves Jul.20-21 auction sale in NewYork.

Anthony
User avatar
ozstamps
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 13116
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 20:24
Location: A bar somewhere near you ....
Contact:

Post by ozstamps »

Yes the lunatics who are paying 6000 times Scott for common stamps like the one below will of course lose their shirts as I predicted only a couple of months back:

https://www.glenstephens.com/snmarch07.html

This may invoke Bob Dumaine writing and calling me a Jethro Bodine Yokel once again, but I do not care .. a 20c stamp like this is not worth $1000 unless you are either have a screw loose or have FAR too much money. Or are both. :D

Image

There is no way known this stamp was impossible to improve on .. just look at it! It is no way a 100/100 stamp.

Anyone with so much money they can't pick a top stamp but needs someone else to tell them what are, deserves the financial fate they will suffer. :idea:

As Erich said, this little Dutch Tulip Boom has not affected this stamps normal 20c retail value, nor will it in future.
.
Click HERE to see superb, RARE and unusual stamps, at FIXED low nett prices, high rez photos, and NO buyer fees etc!
User avatar
ozstamps
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 13116
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 20:24
Location: A bar somewhere near you ....
Contact:

Post by ozstamps »

moonlight wrote:
It was Shreves Jul.20-21 auction sale in New York.

Anthony
Perfect ... thanks. Charles sent me an email this week saying this was a biggie sale, so HE sounded happy. ;)

OK here is an even sillier one: This exceedingly common junk type stamp (lot 479) sold for 5,750 times Scott value - or $US1,150.

Image

And least that one LOOKS half decent:

This one below on left is also graded "100" Lot 475 and sold for $US1265 on a Scott cat of 35c. "Only" 3614 times Scott value, and it looks pretty ordinary to me anyway. The stamp on the right was the next lot, also fresh MUH and sold for ONE SIXTH that Price .. can you see a 6 fold difference? Me, I'd take the right hand one any day if prices were the same, much less a sixth. :idea:

ImageImage
.
Click HERE to see superb, RARE and unusual stamps, at FIXED low nett prices, high rez photos, and NO buyer fees etc!
User avatar
ozstamps
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 13116
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 20:24
Location: A bar somewhere near you ....
Contact:

Post by ozstamps »

Now for the exact same $1,150 price that some nut paid for a common 3d Washington of which millions exist MUH, this full MUH sheet of 12c sold - to the exact same dollar $1,150 - i.e. it went for HALF Scott!

I'll do a Nostradamus here. 8)

If THIS exact sheet 100 and that exact 3c were auctioned alongside each other in 10 years time the sheet will get at LEAST 100 times more in dollars. And more like 500 times.

Why? The high value sheet is scarce, but 10,000s of MUH 3c Washington's exist that look the same as this one. Just that no-one has ever bothered to send them for a grading figure. :idea:

Image

12c Claret brown, plate no. 12583 pane of 100, includes some very well centered stamps, rich color, o.g., n.h., some minor perf. separations, overall a very fine sheet
.
Click HERE to see superb, RARE and unusual stamps, at FIXED low nett prices, high rez photos, and NO buyer fees etc!
moonlight
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
Posts: 33
Joined: 01 Apr 2007 02:43
Location: Woodbridge Ontario Canada
Contact:

Post by moonlight »

I agree with you Glen. I guess the key word here is "common". You would expect these prices for truly rare stamps, but not these.

Anthony
moonlight
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
AQUA Star Stampboards Enthusiast
Posts: 33
Joined: 01 Apr 2007 02:43
Location: Woodbridge Ontario Canada
Contact:

Post by moonlight »

Take the stamp below. I just bought this on Ebay a couple of weeks ago. It probably wouldn't even grade 90, but I would rather have this stamp which any Newfoundland collector would love to have. This stamp is VF MINT NH and is very difficult to find in this condition.

Anthony

Image
User avatar
ozstamps
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 13116
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 20:24
Location: A bar somewhere near you ....
Contact:

Post by ozstamps »

Here is a BARGAIN from that same sale.

Full panes 50 with plate numbers etc, of the 1924 Huegenot Commem .. all fresh MUh for the same $1,150 the single 3c went for! What a joke.

Image
User avatar
David Benson
5000 Great Posts - WHAT a Milestone!
5000 Great Posts - WHAT a Milestone!
Posts: 5212
Joined: 29 May 2007 09:05
Location: Sydney

Post by David Benson »

If you mean WE as in US collectors then the answer is yes, especially to those who bought high graded stamps at excessive prices but if you mean WE as in rest of the world collectors then the answer is no. WE are not that stupid,

David B.
User avatar
waroff49
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 16255
Joined: 18 Apr 2007 12:01
Location: Croydon, Victoria

Post by waroff49 »

Personally, I think not only stamps but the whole economy is about due for a re-assessment. I think slow downs in America will force a reassessment of all forms of investment.

I don't think most of the population will have spare cash to spend on stamps. As for the top end, I think the speculative investors will dry up, if the market looks like downturning, but how this will involve millionaire collectors, I don't know.

I don't think that any market can continually be hitting record marks without at some stage a reassessment and pull-back in the market. The problem being the severity of that pull-back or decline and its duration.

After the heady days of the 1980's, it took quite a while for the stamp market to recover. I think we're getting to that stage again.

As for the genuine rare or top quality market, I think it will go into a holding pattern which may last for some time. As for the medium to cheap market, there will be a serious decline and will last longer.

I think it will be trends in other areas which will influence the stamp market, baby-boomers who are retiring and need capital to survive ( especially those who have sunk large amounts into stamps as a hedge against volatility in the stock and currency markets).

I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm sure it will. The question is when and how bad?
Waroff49
The last chapter of the Never_Ending Story is being written.
User avatar
doug2222usa
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 10825
Joined: 25 Jan 2007 03:15
Location: Columbus, Ohio. USA

Siderographers

Post by doug2222usa »

For anyone who has wondered what siderographer's initials are, and what they look like, the pane of 5c Huguenots shown above has them in the lower right corner.

Also note that a proper plate block for this and most other flat-plate printings contains SIX stamps, NOT 4 stamps. Don't get taken by an incorrect description.
User avatar
doug2222usa
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 10825
Joined: 25 Jan 2007 03:15
Location: Columbus, Ohio. USA

Stamp Market

Post by doug2222usa »

The Asian collectors will keep the stamp market alive. Western European material will suffer the most.

The global gap between rich and poor is growing larger, and accelerating from year to year.

By this, economists mean the proportion of the population who control 90% (or some other arbitrary percentage) of the wealth. In the U.S., there is PLENTY of money to chase stamps, and I don't see very much evidence of "investors" stimulating the market.

But you do see the same boom times in coins and especially paper money.
User avatar
Lakatoi 4
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 21779
Joined: 19 Apr 2007 20:41
Location: First star on the right then straight on till morning ...

Re: Stamp Market

Post by Lakatoi 4 »

doug2222usa wrote:The Asian collectors will keep the stamp market alive.
I think Doug has nailed this one.

IMHO - even if there is a potential for a downturn in the usual philatelic markets, the Asian market has unlimited potential.

China in particular, with their vasts amount of new wealth and increased spare time that goes with it, will have a massive effect on world philatelic supply & demand.

I have been tempted to get rid of my currently "cheaper" chinese stamp issues, but will hold onto them for quite a while yet. :wink:
Tony
"A cancelled stamp tells part of the story, a cover tells it all"
User avatar
fromdownunder
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 36282
Joined: 23 Apr 2007 15:25
Location: Lara, Victoria, Australia

Post by fromdownunder »

Apart from the very top end of the market, extremely high quality material, the increasing demand (and I would guess that this is from existing collectors) for good centring and MUH, and the current USA fad for rated stamps, I am yet to be convinced that there is a "boom" going on which will affect general collectors at all.

Prices for all "normal" material (say stamps in the $50-200 range), junk lots and (older) kilware and mixtures has barely moved for 20 years, with most if not all items still available at the prices they were 20 years ago. Really cheap stuff is still available for around nothing per stamp.

New material is more difficult and more expensive, mainly because their 'aint enough of it - many countries simply do not issue stamps for postage any more.

The new issue market for countries over supplying new issues is moribund, and will need to rely on new collectors to improve.

And I note with a wry smile that New Zealand is about to issue 7 Harry Potter stamps, along with first day covers (!), but that the "stamps" will NOT be available for postage. (see Margot's July News post)

We are going through another "phase" as we did with decimals, Vatican, Pitcairn Islands, Hong Kong, Macao to a lesser extent, and Australian Territories - members from other countries will have other speculative phases that they recall.

The underlying core of collectors do not (should not) chase speculative spikes, and will simply continue to collect what they wish to.

And nobody is going to stop collecting if (when) the 100 rated perfect slabbed USA stamps crash through the floor.

That suits me.

Norm
User avatar
doug2222usa
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 10825
Joined: 25 Jan 2007 03:15
Location: Columbus, Ohio. USA

Stamp Market

Post by doug2222usa »

Norm, I would agree with all your points except one:

"current USA fad for rated stamps"

The old boys at our stamp club (including me) are highly amused by graded stamps, and most would not buy one, but they will gladly sell you one, LOL LOL.

The whole scheme is held in a mild contempt around here; our club poll found 82% thought graded stamps were bad for the hobby as well as a very risky "investment."

Right now on Virtual Stamp Club (a Delphi forum), there is a rigorous, ugly, high-octane, highly-opinionated debate with hundreds of posts (some of them with gut-wrenching insults) on this very subject. I am staying out of it.

There are a few eBay Sellers flogging these bad boys, with a lot of uncommon adjectives and a multitude of exclamation points, but I really do not believe it is a "fad" in the U.S. I wish someone would tell me how graded stamps are doing in Scandinavia and Switzerland and China, just for comparison of the phenomenon.
User avatar
doug2222usa
PLATINUM Shooting Star *10,000* Posts!
PLATINUM Shooting Star  *10,000* Posts!
Posts: 10825
Joined: 25 Jan 2007 03:15
Location: Columbus, Ohio. USA

More

Post by doug2222usa »

I meant to answer the basic question, but didn't. I think the stamp market is fairly healthy, and I do not expect a stamp market crash. Ask me again in 2 or 3 years.

What we DO have is a lot of 60 to 80 year old collectors in the process of liquidating their collections to simplify matters for their heirs. I am doing this myself, every day. This is a worldwide phenomenon.

In Europe, the method seems to be to send everything off to auction and hope for the best. In the US, a lot of collectors (many computer-savvy, with easy access to the best selling mechanism in the world, eBay) are trying to do it themselves, at least for now, some with pretty good results.
Surfbay
Blue Star less than 5 posts NEWBIE!
Blue Star less than 5 posts NEWBIE!
Posts: 2
Joined: 26 Jul 2007 19:13
Location: INTERNATIONAL.

Re: Stamp Market

Post by Surfbay »

doug2222usa wrote:The Asian collectors will keep the stamp market alive. Western European material will suffer the most.

The global gap between rich and poor is growing larger, and accelerating from year to year.

By this, economists mean the proportion of the population who control 90% (or some other arbitrary percentage) of the wealth. In the U.S., there is PLENTY of money to chase stamps, and I don't see very much evidence of "investors" stimulating the market.

But you do see the same boom times in coins and especially paper money.
Hi . . . hello

I'm NEW to this forum, ( but I am in no way a newbie to the wonderful world of stamp collecting and stamp investment). I just registered and I really did have to post here in this thread, before it disappears over the hill and far away . . .

Here we go . . .

I am interested to know what exactly is the force behind the Asian stamp market.

There seems to be no let up and the marketplace appears to go from strength to stength. (In my opinion !!!)

Is the strength gained from the local Asian economy . . . or are there other factors to consider ???

Folks tell me China, for example, is enjoying an economic boom which is driving consumer spending . . . sky high. I am not finding evidence of this upsurge . . . but it would be good to hear from others perhaps better placed than myself.
User avatar
Clive
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 2283
Joined: 14 Jun 2007 21:16
Location: Hobart, Tasmania

Post by Clive »

I'm with Doug's view on this.

It's unlikely that we will ever again witness a crash of the proportion that swept over us here in Australia in the early 1980s. In the boom days you could buy at face at the Post Office and make double your money within a few weeks. I've still got many magazines of the boom period, and the prices asked for say late pre-decimal stamps and early decimals just defy reality. Yet people queued up to pay those prices.

I just looked at some prices I paid, in March 1981.

COMPAC 2/3 muh I paid fourteen dollars

ICY 2/3 muh I paid seven dollars.

Royal Visit set (5d and 2/3) I paid fourteen dollars.

And thought I'd got a bargain!!!! Ouch.


Clive
User avatar
iomoon
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 14569
Joined: 02 Jun 2007 22:34
Location: Alpine, Texas/ Scarsdale, New York
Contact:

Post by iomoon »

Folks tell me China, for example, is enjoying an economic boom which is driving consumer spending . . . sky high. I am not finding evidence of this upsurge . . . but it would be good to hear from others perhaps better placed than myself.

Though I haven't been there in a while, there is strong evidence that the Chinese economy is on the upswing. The expenditure for the 2008 Olympics will probably be more than repaid in terms of tourism and in boosts to the local economies.


From Forbes:

Hong Kong's export performance in June exceeded expectations due largely to the robust performance of China's economy, the Standard Chartered Bank said.

"The export data came in stronger than expected. I believe this is supported by robust demand from China," Frances Cheung, analyst with Standard Chartered, said.


Add to the, the still-expanding Chinese population, and an inherent interest in philately, I'd say the Chinese stamp market is in pretty good shape.

Besides which, with a flagging US dollar, I'm having a really hard time picking up Chinese stamps at prices I can afford. Damn poms keep overbidding me!!!
User avatar
GlenStephens
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
Posts: 22057
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 19:46
Location: Sunny Sydney .... well Castlecrag to be precise.
Contact:

Post by GlenStephens »

Clive .. good to see you here! At LAST! 8)

To get that ugly yellow NEWBIE tag off your back perhaps add a comment on this thread about those days of crazy prices:

http://www.stampboards.com/viewtopic.php?t=187&highlight=waterfalls
.
Click HERE to see superb, RARE and unusual stamps, at FIXED low nett prices, high rez photos, and NO buyer fees etc!
User avatar
SimonDunkerley
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 751
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 04:02
Location: Melbourne, Victoria

Post by SimonDunkerley »

I have written a bit on some aspects of the 'post 1980' crash in some stamp prices on the thread Glen refers to above ...

Putting aside the current US 'grading bubble' as I call it, I believe the overall stamp market is very strong and robust. Yes it has its weaknesses and so do all markets. The % of the market that these I believe 'nutty 100j' prices relate to is very small indeed, so I think it is wrong to determine the whole future of the stamp market based on how high such prices go, and possibly fall in the years ahead.

I am refering to Australian material here as that is what I know best, when I say there have been a lot of staggering price rises, mostly in rarer and more specialised material since about 1990 in particular. In many cases increases of about 20 to 50 and even 100 times the 1980 price in some instances. This includes rare shades and varieties, the major and rarer errors, rarer monograms and imprints, rare multiples, good covers, essays, proofs and the like. Many regular stamps in top condition have also gone up, however, many have not.

It is essential to recognise that these increases have been for very different reasons to the so-called 1977-80 'boom' in stamp prices, where it was mostly 'the wrong' kind of material that rose astronomically, and for reasons that were not philatelically based. A lot of it was based on 'invesment' driven buyers who knew nothing or very little about stamps, and at a time when gold was nearly $AU900 and just short of $US1,000 and when interest rates were half the inflation rate in Australia at least. There was madness in the air in many markets!

In 1980 a £2 1st wmk monogram was worth about $4,000 and not much more in 1984. At the recent Arthur Gray sale I bought the same item for $A176,000 on behalf of a client. In 1980 a MUH decimal 1966 Navigator set was selling for $275 and today they are slow sellers at $25 (I sold the one's I had in my collection when the price got to $50 a set on the way up as I thought that was more than they were worth and didn't own another set for at least 5 years by which time I could buy them for about $20 a set).

When decimal Navigators were $275, I remember getting a phone call from someone who had recently bought 10 sets at $250 each and wondered what he should do with them. I commented that if they were mine I would either sell them right now, or take out an insurance policy against the future loss in value if such a thing could be found!

From a purely investment angle, if you use the standard benchmark that 'to achieve a 10% p.a. return, an item needs to roughly double in value every 7 years', the decimal Navigator set would have to be selling for $4,400 in 2008 (next year = 28 years have lapsed since 1980 = 4 x 7 year cycle; meaning that the price needs to be 2x after 7 years, 4x after 14 years, 8x after 21 years and 16x after 28 years).

The £2 monogram above is ahead of this level at approx 45x the 1980 price and so are many better items; however, the Navigator set is about ½% of what it 'should' be by the same measure, and not easy to sell at that ($25 compared to $4,400).

Today's market, whilst clearly imperfect, is indeed far more sophisticated and global in its nature than the 1980 market.

So, I do not believe we will see a 1980 type 'crash'. Yes, there will be some ups and downs along the way. Some material has gone up too much in my view and some is still 'under appreciated' and I believe worth more than the market currently pays for it.

Bottom line: in 5-10 years time I believe the 'nutty' prices currently being paid for USA items graded 100j might be a sour joke, however, the stamp market will still be healthy, and for good reasons.

Obviously no one knows the real answer to this question, however, if common sense is applied it will be most helpful ...

Simon Dunkerley
Last edited by SimonDunkerley on 27 Jul 2007 09:25, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
sandgroper
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 958
Joined: 18 Apr 2007 07:39
Location: Batemans Bay, NSW , Australia

Post by sandgroper »

Simon, Nice article.

I think you are right on the money, good items will always command a premium price and in the inevitability of things there will always be fewer and fewer available, fires theft and carelessness taking its toll.

Are you sure you are getting enough sleep, posting at 5.02am? :o
KGV tragic
User avatar
Clive
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 2283
Joined: 14 Jun 2007 21:16
Location: Hobart, Tasmania

Post by Clive »

Simon,

Yes, your comments and views are spot on. Mention of the 1966 Navigators brought on another shudder.

I started, or re-started, collecting Australia in 1980. As it happened, although I didn't of course realise it at the time, that was at or near the height of the frenetic buying and selling activity that directly preceded the crash.

I still have my first Australasian Stamp catalogue, in which I recorded the prices and dates of each item I bought. It ain't pleasant reading.

I was more interested in acquiring items for my collection than in putting stuff away as an investment but, like so many others, I did occasionally squirrel bits and pieces away, mostly new decimal issues. Over the ensuing years I've pretty-well used nearly all of that supposed investment stuff for regular postage. I do, however, still have some strips of the Charles/Diana wedding issue, if anyone wants to offer me a really good price :lol:

Clive
User avatar
baroldsan
RED Shooting Star Posting LEGEND!
RED Shooting Star Posting LEGEND!
Posts: 1019
Joined: 14 Jun 2007 19:27
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Post by baroldsan »

Could someone explain how the "grading" system works.

On a day when the stock market takes a big hit it is easy to be pessimistic however I will always remain confident about that market and it has done pretty well over the years. There will always be corrections in any market and their will always be the speculative investor (punter) so it is best for the average collector to just collect what he is interested in, pay prices he can afford and enjoy the result. As I never intend selling my collection what it is worth is fairly academic.
Baroldsan
Perth
Western Australia
User avatar
PennyBlack1840
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 881
Joined: 18 Apr 2007 18:10
Location: United Kingdom

Post by PennyBlack1840 »

Great thread......

The Amerians have got it all wrong as usual, rare things are exactly that - RARE - you pay what you have to pay to acquire them. The Arthur Gray collection being a good example, it was acquired over many years and some of the items sold will not resurface for a long time.

The Grading system is innocuous because I have seen too many stamps garded 100 which frankly should not be - the imperfection in the grading system seems to be that a more highly valued item does not have the same criteria placed against it for centering / perfs etc as a cheap stamp and that makes it wrong. Grading in its absolute sense to have any credibility must treat all stamps the same - it is the market which determines price based on several factors, grading and quality may well be some considerations but rarity is IMHO a more primary driver of price.

The market is good right now because in the main the groundswell of demand is collector driven, that said some areas are always doing better than others and can be influenced by other things. The general health or otherwise of any country's economy can influence where material sells and goes to. I am in the UK and with a strong £ especially an all time high rate evrsus the US dollar it makes buying material abroad a much more attractive proposition just now.

The market will remain strong at collector level it is only the unwise investors (SG very much to blame in my view) and the ill informed who will lose out financially, but the problem remains when they vacate the stamp market as to what happens to prices. Right now most prices at collector level are reasonable. At the serious level prices are rising. It may be the China factor which can soak up a fair amount of material, but beyond that other than quality pieces I would be selling into strength - cash is always king.

Peter
User avatar
SimonDunkerley
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 751
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 04:02
Location: Melbourne, Victoria

Post by SimonDunkerley »

Actually it has been my long time view that prices are generally determined by the 'balance or imbalance between supply and demand' and that neither of these two factors in isolation means a lot. I have written in other threads about this in more detail (one on rare stamps in particular) ...

In other words, rarity alone does not mean a stamp will be expensive, and sometimes even relatively plentiful items can be expensive.

I firmly believe that as the supply of good stamps potentially available to the philatelic market is generally fairly fixed, it is the demand that plays a more direct role in how high or low prices may go.

As long as I have researched the prices of stamps, and that has been a long time, it has always been true that high demand for a stamp that is not super rare is more likely to push up the price than rarity of a stamp that no one wants.

On the other hand, when both rarity and demand are found together, then the result invariably, but not always, is a high price.

eg. The Western Australia 4d inverted frame of which about 7 are available in private hands would currently be worth around $A200,000+ for a fine example (I sold the last one available privately in 1992 for $60,000). However, there are many rarer items in the Australian Colonies that sell for a few $100's through to the low $1,000's. That is the fact of the market.

On the other hand, the 5/- Bridge is a common stamp by comparison in the sense that if you wanted 500 of them in mint or used, I could arrange it over time as long as your cheque book was deep enough.

Similarly, a standard (not rare plate/variety/postmark) GB 1d Black is very common used and even quite available mint, yet sells for aropund $200 and $3,000+ respectively for fine examples. This is far more due to demand than true rarity.

By way of comparison, in coins, if your wallet was deep enough, I could get you about 100 Australian 1930 pennies in a year or so- and the average cost would probably be around $A20,000+ each. I have been reliably told by coin experts that that is about how many come onto the market in Australia each year. I know of one dealer who I used to have a stand next to that once had about 20 in stock at the one time. Compared to the rarities in stamps, that is not rare at all, yet it commands such a high price. Why? Well, it is because the demand is very high and everyone seems to want one.

What no one knows at this point is how many of this stamp and that stamp from USA will eventually be graded '100j' so although the potential supply available to collectors is fixed in many respects, as the prices continue to go up, the numbers of those that appear on the market will only increase over time ... some stamps are lost to the market or destroyed, there are new discoveries of stamps, some will be well held and some will come onto the market, however, the overall supply potentially available will be fairly well fixed over time.

For information on the grading system and how it works (or some would say doesn't work) check out the website of 'Professional Stamp Experts' (PSE) ...

http://www.psestamp.com/

It states that they have now graded the 100,000th stamp; has info on the grading criteria they use, their 'population report' (ie tables of each different issue that has been graded and how many of them have been given each appropriate grade), prices, etc. Whilst I personally don't agree with a lot of it, it does make interesting reading.

As I have noted above, I do not believe that this 'phenomena' will have a huge long term negative impact on the real overall market for better stamps and related material.

In the long run, only time will tell ...

Simon Dunkerley
User avatar
David Benson
5000 Great Posts - WHAT a Milestone!
5000 Great Posts - WHAT a Milestone!
Posts: 5212
Joined: 29 May 2007 09:05
Location: Sydney

Post by David Benson »

Waroff,

when they are court cases pending which haven't been adjucicated it is very dangerous to make comments regarding the guilt of any of the parties involved. As his comments did it may be best for you to contemplate what you will do with them as you may have to take the consequences if you allow them to stay,

David Benson
User avatar
fromdownunder
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 36282
Joined: 23 Apr 2007 15:25
Location: Lara, Victoria, Australia

Post by fromdownunder »

Let's look at this whole situation from the other side of the coin, or the "glass half full", if you like:

Since none of us can actually predict the future, IF stamp collecting comes back in a big way any time in the next 10-20 years, anybody sitting on post 2000 issues is likely to make a fortune.

For better, or worse I will not be one of them.

Norm
User avatar
Lakatoi 4
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 21779
Joined: 19 Apr 2007 20:41
Location: First star on the right then straight on till morning ...

Post by Lakatoi 4 »

The SG100 stamp investment return index shows a widening of the gap between the SG100 index and the standard bank interest returns since about mid-2001. They SG100 index is skewed to the top 100 traded stamps.

The SG100 index line is well above standard bank interest returns by the way.

Does anyone know if this is similar in the medium and lower end of the stamp market?
Tony
"A cancelled stamp tells part of the story, a cover tells it all"
User avatar
vasia
PLATINUM Star Serious Stamp Poster
PLATINUM Star Serious Stamp Poster
Posts: 456
Joined: 24 Jul 2007 22:56
Location: Greece

Post by vasia »

Well, to get back to the topic thread, that is whether the stamp market is heading towards a crash, I think a few other members have touched upon the gist of the issue: there is not a single stamp market, but maybe several stamp "markets", depending on who is buying.

I think the fate of the stamp market that is linked to "middle of the road", working people is to a large extent dependent on the course of the economy, globally and in individual countries. A crisis in the economy (a recession as some prefer to call it) would undoubtedly affect this particular stamp market, by reducing the available income that can be spent on stamps.

On the other hand the stamp market that is geared towards affluent investors will, in my opinion, follow a completely different course. The excess availability of capital that cannot be invested productively (i.e in the real economy) will find recourse to avenues of speculation, including the purchase of stamps, either high valued items or speculative hoarding.

I think the example of Spain is but a premonition of what can follow in a number of countries, probably with the US being in the lead, as the economic indicators seem to suggest.

As an aside, I find it extremely distrurbing that member David Benson is asking for a pre-emptory censorship on the content of the messages posted here, just because there exists an implicit fear that a high-level speculator in Spain, with well-established connections to the politico-judicial establishment, might find ground for legal action. To absolve this forum from any such legal responsibility, I state therefore that I take full responsibility for my comments about speculation and that these comments bind only myself and not the postage stamp board or its administrators.

If one studies history, one sees that progress is made not by bending backwards to the powers that be, but by being on the side of justice and the common working person.
User avatar
admin
Site Administrator
Posts: 12871
Joined: 02 Sep 2005 12:46
Location: That's on a need to know basis - and YOU do not need to know!

Post by admin »

vasia wrote:

On the other hand the stamp market that is geared towards affluent investors will, in my opinion, follow a completely different course. The excess availability of capital that cannot be invested productively (i.e in the real economy) will find recourse to avenues of speculation, including the purchase of stamps, either high valued items or speculative hoarding.
The current crash on Wall Street is a good example I imagine. :)
User avatar
baroldsan
RED Shooting Star Posting LEGEND!
RED Shooting Star Posting LEGEND!
Posts: 1019
Joined: 14 Jun 2007 19:27
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Post by baroldsan »

Some posts ago before we got distracted I asked if someone could explain the "grading " system. Who does it, do they issue certificates and what fees do they charge?
Baroldsan
Perth
Western Australia
User avatar
admin
Site Administrator
Posts: 12871
Joined: 02 Sep 2005 12:46
Location: That's on a need to know basis - and YOU do not need to know!

Post by admin »

Good points stampnut.

The graders who assess the number grade, and the auctions offering them of course say they only offer the stamps to the highest bidder, and do not set the prices. That much is true.

But many dealers do offer them at set prices - often at massive multiples of 1000s times the current Scott cat. These guys often buy the stamp at a few cents each, have them graded as 98 or 100, and offer them for $100s. I've seen page ads in Linn's from some of the promoters buying cheapie stamps from the 1930s at cents each, for just this purpose. Nothing illegal or unethical about it. Dopey clients with large cheque books are all you need. ;)

One leading USA dealer, Bob Dumaine from the Sam Houston Duck Company, sent an email around to the small clique of dealers selling these direct to the public. Bob lampooned my large article on these warning of the obvious dangers of paying 6,000 times Scott value for very common stamps - if you ever wanted to get your money back - painting me as the anti-Christ, and calling me Jethro Bodine from Hicksville. :)

As you say if the prices settle at say 10% of what some are fetching now, I guess we will see who was right - and who the Hillbilly really is. ;)

More discussion on that here :

http://www.stampboards.com/viewtopic.php?t=208&start=50

Glen
User avatar
fromdownunder
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 36282
Joined: 23 Apr 2007 15:25
Location: Lara, Victoria, Australia

Post by fromdownunder »

Baroldsan page one on the thread Glen linked to immediately above will provide you with all the information you need regarding the grading sysem.

I don't think it mentions cost, but I think the price per grading is around $US30-50 (that is a guess based on a bad memory from where I read this information.)

Just to give you a further idea as to where the "graded stamp" thing has gone, here are a few offers for stamps graded at 100.

http://www.stampwants.com/categories.php?parent=2014

Note two things however:

1. The majority of these stamps normally sell for about 10 cents in "fine/very fine" condition (as defined in the USA), if anyone can find a buyer.

2. These are all BIN prices, so I have no idea if anything is actually being sold at these prices.

It is probably worth taking a look at ebay USA for stamps graded at 100, to see if any/many are being bidded for by Jo Public.

Norm
Last edited by fromdownunder on 30 Jul 2007 11:44, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
sherro
5000 Great Posts - WHAT a Milestone!
5000 Great Posts - WHAT a Milestone!
Posts: 6679
Joined: 30 May 2007 12:31
Location: Leura NSW

Post by sherro »

I find the grading issue quite disturbing. Is it the ultimate "dumbing down" of our hobby, to the degree where speculators (I won't call them investors, because investors have some idea what they're doing) rely on the grading number without ever having seen the stamp? I know the same debate came about when MUH overtook MH as the mint standard. A common stamp is a common stamp, despite it's centreing, gum , perfs and appearance. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
User avatar
GlenStephens
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
Posts: 22057
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 19:46
Location: Sunny Sydney .... well Castlecrag to be precise.
Contact:

Post by GlenStephens »

fromdownunder wrote:
Just to give you a further idea as to where the "graded stamp" thing has gone, here are a few offers for stamps graded at 100.

https://www.stampwants.com/categories.php?parent=2014
Yes an interesting comparison.

This one below is priced at $US375.

It is a 5c stamp when I sell it.

This "over-run countries" issue is one of the stamps there are page ads for in Linn's offering to buy for a few cents each in mint sheets.

Clearly on most sheets you'll find some well centered like this. They simply remove the nice ones, and use up the balance on postage etc.

Indeed many might argue this stamp could NEVER be graded a perfect '100' by anyone competent, as the stamp has short and even nibbled perfs - Freddie the blind boy can see that.

Can this stamp be improved on? Of COURSE it could be - therefore it cannot possibly be graded "100". The top right perf, second from right is PULLED .... that is obvious to anyone with a set of eyes.

https://www.stampwants.com/Scott-913-Mint-OG-NH-2006-PSE-Grad ... iondetails

Image
.
Click HERE to see superb, RARE and unusual stamps, at FIXED low nett prices, high rez photos, and NO buyer fees etc!
User avatar
Kevin Morgan
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 1728
Joined: 18 Apr 2007 18:05
Location: Melbourne, Victoria.

WHY? in fact lots of whys

Post by Kevin Morgan »

Why all of a sudden is a Stamp Market Crash thought to be imminent?

Why then is it that sales of our magazine Stamp News rise every month, and have done continuously, albeit gradually over the past 5 plus years?

Why then is it that supplies of usually fairly common material are currently quite scarce in the market place? few dealers in Australia have decent stocks of any of the better KGV period Commem. sets mint unhinged, or the Robes and Arms sets of QEII. Similarly the GB High Values of KGVI appear to be in short supply.

Why are there not hundreds or thousands of lapsed collectors lining up at dealers doors to sell their collections? I have not been offered a single decent ($5000 plus) collection in two or three years direct from a collector.

Why is demand from my customers for catalogues, stockbooks
and other accessories stronger than ever before?

If the above are signs of impending doom, then I have it all wrong.
FREE sample copy of Stamp News Australasia available on request to all Stampboards members!
Also don't forget to checkout our websites at http://www.kevinmorgan.com.au
User avatar
baroldsan
RED Shooting Star Posting LEGEND!
RED Shooting Star Posting LEGEND!
Posts: 1019
Joined: 14 Jun 2007 19:27
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Post by baroldsan »

I fully agree with the sentiments of Kevin. As an investor in the stock market I have watched over many years (several decades) the fluctuations in prices, and overall the market continues to grow and I for one am confident of its capability to continue to do so.

Often though I have felt that the market being an imperfect place is led by rumour and innuendo and as a result prices have suffered (or improved). People who are investing serious money in stamps should be careful in talking their way into a slump, already having been on this site for the past few months the general tone has made me wonder whether whether it would be advisable to "invest" rather than collect.

When I joined I was certainly in a more confident mood about stamps than I am now and if more people begin to feel the same then the stamp market will inevitably suffer. Be careful, you could be sowing the seeds of your own downfall.
Baroldsan
Perth
Western Australia
User avatar
fromdownunder
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 36282
Joined: 23 Apr 2007 15:25
Location: Lara, Victoria, Australia

Post by fromdownunder »

baroldsan, I disagree with the thrust of your post. There will be no downturn, because first you need an upturn, and as I said earlier in this thread, apart from fads, which always happen when people try to make a quick buck, the market for most affordable stamps is pretty stable and we collectors are quite happy.

I would never invest in stamps. But I will continue to collect stamps, and I still get just as much of a thrill when I fill a gap in my German inflation issues as I did when I "completed" my post George V Australian collection and recently "completed" my New Zealand collection from 1920 up to March 2007.

I just ordered a junk lot from Glen, and will happily pour through it for hours. Most of it (all of it?) will finish up in the box of duplicates which as of now, has about 6 kilos of off paper junk in it. So what?

As far as the market goes, I don't give a damn. To me, anybody who tries to make a short term killing in stamps by investing, is headed for trouble. It is essentially a hobby with perhaps a long term gain, but not in the case of 99% of the stamps on the market.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is potentially looking down a financial sinkhole.

Norm
User avatar
SimonDunkerley
Sadly departed RIP. Greatly missed here
Sadly departed RIP.  Greatly missed here
Posts: 751
Joined: 03 Apr 2007 04:02
Location: Melbourne, Victoria

Post by SimonDunkerley »

The most important thing is to keep any such discussions in perspective.

When we saw the 1977-80 'so-called boom' in stamp prices, only certain types of stamps went up in value - many of what are the best sellers today did not go up much. When the inevitable crunch came, it was mainly those that had risen in price for the wrong reasons that also fell in price. I believe that the importance of this observation, backed up by substantial research that I have done should not be under estimated.

Many supposed investors who were really speculaters as noted above lost out and it was largely I believe due to their own stupidity. Perhaps it was just plain greed. Most real philatelists didn't get caught up in it, and in reality, they were left alone during the so-called 'boom' and were able to buy the right sort of material without too much competition.

As I have written above and elsewhere, I believe the market for quality specialised stamps and related material is very strong and there is not enough of it around to satisfy demand; and that it will continue to be strong.

Interesting points are raised above in looking as to what degree normally very low value stamps are actually selling at $100's or $1,000's. I would add that it should be asked as to what degree are they selling to real long term collectors, and I mean real collectors - not investors and not speculaters. I suspect I know the answer to this question, and if the answer is no, then I think the 'grading bubble' as I call it is doomed to fail at some point; whether it be next year or five years time or whenever. And, if this is so, the real and intelligent collectors will continue to look on at such things with bemusement.

It should also be recognised that the reality is that the market for graded stamps is a small percentage of the overall market and is largely of little relevance to real philatelists. If it is kept in this kind of perspective then I believe the potential for it to do any damage to the real market for quality specialised stamps is minimal.

Simon Dunkerley
invertedcenter
Black Ninja Star! Board Posting Addict.
Black Ninja Star! Board Posting Addict.
Posts: 56
Joined: 17 Jul 2007 06:32
Location: New York, New York. USA
Contact:

Another stamp auction

Post by invertedcenter »

This was listed on Shreves auction .. Stamp cat value $110..sold for $5500! Amazing!

Lot 374 - #550, 5c Pilgrim Tercentenary, a most remarkable mint example, being fabulously well centered within especially wide margins, plus its color is deep and luxuriant, while its impression is superbly detailed on brilliantly white paper, o.g., n.h., a superb gem in the finest possible condition;

2007 PSE certificate (Superb 98 Jumbo; SMQ $2,300.00 for 98); this is the sole example of #550 to grade 98J, the highest grade awarded to any stamp of this series, making this a "must have" for someone attempting to assemble the highest graded set.....CV. $110.00 ...Sold for $5,500.00
User avatar
GlenStephens
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
Posts: 22057
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 19:46
Location: Sunny Sydney .... well Castlecrag to be precise.
Contact:

Post by GlenStephens »

invertedcenter - Can you do members a favour please and ALWAYS add a direct link please to the items involved, and the photo if you do not mind.

Also remember that $US5,500 price will be PLUS 15%.
.
Click HERE to see superb, RARE and unusual stamps, at FIXED low nett prices, high rez photos, and NO buyer fees etc!
invertedcenter
Black Ninja Star! Board Posting Addict.
Black Ninja Star! Board Posting Addict.
Posts: 56
Joined: 17 Jul 2007 06:32
Location: New York, New York. USA
Contact:

Post by invertedcenter »

goto www.stampauctionnetwork.com Its the first thing listed there. But I will keep it mind for future events
User avatar
GlenStephens
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
I was online for Post Number 4 MILLION!
Posts: 22057
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 19:46
Location: Sunny Sydney .... well Castlecrag to be precise.
Contact:

Post by GlenStephens »

Sorry that is all but useless. What members need is this:

https://www.stampauctionnetwork.com/F/f9519.cfm

Image
User avatar
erich
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Founder Member Joined April 2007
Posts: 1853
Joined: 25 Jan 2007 05:25
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Contact:

Post by erich »

These are pretty crazy too:

Lot Symbol CatNo. Lot Description CV or Estimate
#537, 3c Victory, a breathtaking mint single, possessing not only remarkably wide margins all around, but it is absolutely perfectly centered within these impressive borders, brilliantly fresh color on pristine white paper, immaculate o.g., n.h., superb; a "one-in-a-million" gem that has been awarded the ultimate grade - Gem 100 Jumbo - by the PSE, the sole such example in their population report for #537, in fact there are not even any "normal" Gem 100's in their report; 2007 PSE certificate (Gem 100 Jumbo; SMQ $600.00 for 98, not priced in this stunning grade). (Image) $20.00

Image
SOLD for $4,500.00

and:

#548, 1c Pilgrim Tercentenary, a matchless quality used single, flawlessly centered amid extravagantly large margins all around, strong rich color and a crisp impression, well struck Cincinnati registry oval cancel, a superb gem; 2007 PSE certificate (Superb 98 Jumbo; SMQ $285.00 for 98); not only is this the highest grade the PSE has awarded to any Pilgrim Tercentenary stamp (mint or used), it is the only used example of the set to grade 98J. (Image) $2.25

Image

SOLD for $1,000.00

$20 and $2.25 are the "normal" VF Scott CV for these stamps.
Post Reply

Return to “Discuss stamps - and *anything* at ALL happening with stamps”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: deltic1575, GB1840 and 11 guests